The Weekly Signal: #001
OpenAI's Ghibli-mania, Who wins Nobel Prizes?, Sources of Air Pollution, Embrace Cringe, Action Produces Information...
Every week (or so), get the latest signals on news, insights, frameworks, and ideas around technology, science, business, and innovation to help you become a better well-rounded thinker, investor and builder. Maybe a short essay as well too.
In 2003, LEGO nearly went bust after over-diversifying into theme parks and video games. They turned it around by refocusing on core bricks, selling 75 billion pieces yearly by 2025. Fun twist: there are now 400 billion LEGO bricks worldwide—50 per person on Earth!
Here’s this week’s scoop:
The Ghibilification of the internet
How crypto money is funding a space station
The interesting stats of Nobel Prize winners
The unlikely sources of air pollution
Why embracing ‘being cringe’ is a good thing
How Action Produces Information
Let’s go!
🔥 Nuggets for the Road
How to really use brand to drive growth [GROWTH UNHINGED]
A look at the fastest-growing software category. Ever. [EVERY]
Ideas are meant to be thrown away [ALPHA BYTES]
17,784 hours: Exactly how one startup founder spent 5 years building [FIRST ROUND]
📰 The Signal
OpenAI-4o Image Gen + Ghibli-mania!
OpenAI’s new image generation feature, part of GPT-4o, just got a whole lot spicier — it’s their new AI model trained on online images and text, focusing on photorealism and style. It stands out because it refines your prompt through natural conversation, ensuring consistency, like designing a video game character. It feels like a conversational art studio, democratizing creativity. You can already see this with the amount of hype this has received with so many people Ghiblifying their most treasured moments. While it’s been overwhelmingly positive, others have criticized the copyright infringements it’s created and whether it’s taking the soul out of genuine artistry that Studio Ghibli has been famous for. RELEASE, Substack, Ghibli-mania (X)
11x Controversy
11x, an AI sales rep startup backed by a16z and Benchmark, is embroiled in controversy for claiming non-customers like ZoomInfo and Airtable, using logos without permission, and reporting misleading ARR by treating short trials as full-year contracts. It faces a 70-80% churn rate, with customers reporting product underperformance and billing issues. This exposes startup hype’s dark side, where scaling fast can lead to ethical shortcuts. It’s a cautionary tale for VCs and founders curious about honesty, transparency, and growth. LINK
How Crypto is Funding a Space Station
Jed McCaleb, founder of former Bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox, and who’s also involved with cryptocurrency XRP, is funding Vast’s commercial space station with a significant portion of his fortune, estimated contextually as part of a $1 billion dream. Vast, headquartered in Long Beach, CA, aims to build the world’s first commercial space station, succeeding NASA’s ISS. Vast aims to launch Haven-1, a 33-foot commercial space station, by May 2026 via SpaceX’s Falcon 9, targeting a NASA contract to replace the International Space Station (ISS), set to retire by 2030. Unlike the $100 billion gov-built ISS, Vast is self-funded—employing 740 staff and SpaceX tech like Dragon docking—reflects a broader privatization trend. Success hinges on a 2026 NASA deal; failure could cost McCaleb his billion-dollar bet. LINK
Who Wins Nobel Prizes?
I was genuinely interested to see the demographics and trends of Nobel Prize winners, analyzing data across decades to uncover patterns in age, nationality, and institutional affiliations. It shows that laureates are increasingly older—averaging around 60 in recent years compared to 50 in the early 20th century—reflecting longer career spans and the time needed to produce groundbreaking work. The U.S. dominates (see image), claiming over 40% of prizes since 2000, often tied to elite institutions like MIT and Stanford, while Europe’s share has declined. Interestingly, there’s also a shift toward collaborative efforts, with more prizes awarded to teams rather than lone geniuses, especially in physics and chemistry. It also hints at a curious anomaly: the outsized success of Jewish scientists, who, despite being less than 0.2% of the global population, have won over 20% of Nobels. This is a fascinating lens on how innovation evolves—less about raw brilliance and more about persistence, networks, and timing. LINK
Where Does Air Pollution Come From?
While fossil fuel combustion—think coal plants and diesel engines—remains the champion of pollution, subtler culprits like agriculture (via ammonia emissions from fertilizers) and residential cooking (wood and charcoal stoves) play surprisingly outsized roles, especially in developing regions. India’s air pollution is heavily tied to crop burning, while Europe battles transport emissions. It also highlights: air pollution’s death toll rivals that of smoking, yet its sources are far less vilified. This is a wake-up call—air pollution isn’t purely coming from industrials; it’s woven into daily life, from the stove in a rural kitchen to the tractor in a field. LINK
World First: Generative AI Therapy Trial
The first clinical trial of a generative AI therapy bot, Therabot, developed by Dartmouth’s Geisel School of Medicine, suggests it matches human therapy’s effectiveness for depression, anxiety, and eating disorder risks. Over four weeks, 106 U.S. participants with diagnosed conditions used Therabot achieving a 51% reduction in depression symptoms, 31% in anxiety, and 19% in body image concerns, compared to a 104-person control group. Therabot uses evidence-based cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) and includes safety features like crisis prompts. Engagement peaked late at night, hinting at its value for immediate support. Yet, researchers mention it’s not fully autonomous due to risks like handling suicidal ideation, requiring oversight. This is a huge breakthrough in accessible mental health care, especially with 1,600 patients per U.S. provider. It’s intriguing how AI could complement human therapists. LINK
All Estimations Are Wrong, But None Are Useful
Estimations are inherently flawed because they’re forecasts of an unpredictable future, shaped by complex projects, vague requirements, and overlooked factors like technical debt. We know that plans derail—think Hofstadter’s Law (tasks take longer than expected, even when you account for delays) or the Planning Fallacy (our optimism blinds us to obstacles). The Cone of Uncertainty is also interesting, where early project unknowns shrink as knowledge grows, and offers practical fixes: breaking tasks into smaller chunks, tracking progress with burn-up charts, and staying conservative with unknowns. I’ve seen startups sink or swim based on how they handle the chaos of estimation. This piece fascinates me because it exposes a universal truth—plans are guesses dressed up as science. LINK
Embrace Being Cringe
The fear of appearing awkward or unpolished stifles creativity and progress. But successful people view cringe as a fun, necessary step, while haters see it as a barrier. I think we can all embrace cringe to unlock remarkable outcomes. This resonates deeply in a world obsessed with perfection. Lamb’s framing of cringe as a superpower flips the script—imagine if every startup founder feared their first pitch’s awkwardness? We’d miss out on breakthroughs. It’s a spark to rethink failure and dive into the messy process of creation. LINK
Small UK Town Creates New Freelancer Tax 😆
The small town of Frome in the UK introduced a £3/hour "creative tax" (Public Space Creative Usage Levy) for freelancers in cafes, from April 1, 2025, targeting activities like using Adobe or sketching with "excessive focus," requiring a £45/month Creative Licence. Non-compliance risks fines or relocation to Designated Freelancer Benches. It turns out that 40% of seating is reportedly monopolized by creatives. It’s a quirky battle over public space, highlighting tensions between local business needs and remote work’s rise. Curious how this plays out. LINK
Naval Ravikant <> Modern Wisdom (Podcast)
I don’t recommend too many podcasts, but this one is certainly a standout. Naval is an exceptional thinker. He also has 2.7 million followers on X—so his content does have some weight, being an entrepreneur, investor, and free thinker. SPOTIFY, APPLE.
John Wick: Chapter 5 - COMING SOON!
Nothing else to say here. Just mentioning this because I’m a fan. LINK
📝 Essay: Action Produces Information
Action produces information, and this is a very good thing if you’re going for something big!
This is true for building a business as it is for anything worth pursuing.
Consider that the information that gets created is neither good nor bad — it’s actually pretty neutral. Do with it what you will.
But the real value comes when you start to create feedback loops with this data.
The more information you create, the more data points you’ll have to make better-informed decisions about what path to take.
This means that taking any sort of action directly leads to more information being created.
But it’s not a 1-to-1 relationship.
Taking one simple action can ultimately result in multiple outcomes and scenarios being created. Crazy how the world works, but it’s true, especially when people are involved. This becomes really important when you’re doing experiments to see what works and what doesn’t.
These outcomes then feed back into the inputs, producing even more information and allowing you to course correct, resulting in a very powerful positive feedback loop that brings you closer to what you want.
It’s the compounding effect that ultimately creates momentum for whatever you’re trying to do.
So basically do something, anything.
Taking any form of action is the best thing you can do to move forward. Not doing anything means you’re going backward. Even when you’re facing the worst of times, it’s better to get up and keep moving, no matter how small.
Just keep going.
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Barry.